CIRA Journal Publications

The following journal publications provide descriptions of the data and methods used in the CIRA project.

On this page:

• General Papers
• Health Sector Models
• Infrastructure Sector Models
• Electricity Sector Models
• Water Resources Sector Models
• Agriculture Sector Models
• Ecosystem Sector Models

General Papers

Sarofim, M.C., J. Martinich, J.E. Neumann, J. Willwerth, Z. Kerrich, M. Kolian, C. Fant, and C. Hartin (2021). A temperature binning approach for multi-sector climate impact analysis. Climatic Change, 165, doi:10.1007/s10584-021-03048-6. Available online at https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-021-03048-6

This study estimates “damages for nine climate impact sectors within the contiguous United States (US) using downscaled climate projections from six global climate models, at integer degrees of US national warming.”

Neumann, J.E., J. Willwerth, J. Martinich, J. McFarland, and M. Sarofim (2020). Climate damage functions for the effects of temperature and precipitation in the United States. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 14, 25–43. Available online at https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1093/reep/rez021

“This article shows how damage functions can be developed from the results of detailed modeling studies and then used to estimate future economic impacts… on human health, infrastructure, and ecosystems.”

Martinich, J., and A. Crimmins (2019). Climate damages and adaptation potential across diverse sectors of the United States. Nature Climate Change, 9, 397–404. Available online at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0444-6

This study summarizes “results from sectoral impact models applied within a consistent modelling framework to project how climate change will affect 22 impact sectors of the United States, including effects on human health, infrastructure and agriculture.”

Martinich, J., J. Reilly, S. Waldhoff, M. Sarofim, and J. McFarland, Eds. (2015). Special issue on “A multi-model framework to achieve consistent evaluation of climate change impacts in the United States.” Climatic Change, 131, 1–181. Available online at https://link.springer.com/journal/10584/volumes-and-issues/131-1?page=1

“This paper describes the design of the analytical framework used in the CIRA project and introduces and summarizes the remaining 10 papers in this Special Issue.”

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Health Sector Models

Air Quality

Nolte, C.G., T.L. Spero, J.H. Bowden, M.C. Sarofim, J. Martinich, & M.S. Mallard (2021). Regional temperature-ozone relationships across the U.S. under multiple climate and emissions scenarios. Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association, doi: 10.1080/10962247.2021.1970048. Available online at https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10962247.2021.1970048 

This study investigates “the effects of climate change on ozone air quality in the United States...using two global climate mode simulations of a high warming scenario for five decadal periods in the 21st century.”

Fann, N., C. Nolte, M. Sarofim, J. Martinich, and N. Nisokolas (2021). Associations between simulated future changes in climate, air quality, and human health. JAMA Network Open, doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.32064. Available online at https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2774529?widget=personalizedcontent&previousarticle=0

This study models “the associations between future changes in climate, air quality, and human health for 2 climate models and under 2 air pollutant emission scenarios.”

Neumann, J.E., M. Amend, S. Anenberg, P.L. Kinney, M. Sarofim, J. Martinich, J. Lukens, J.W. Xu, and H. Roman (2021). Estimating PM2.5-related premature mortality and morbidity associated with future wildfire emissions in the western US. Environmental Research Letters, 16. Available online at https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abe82b/meta

This study estimates “PM2.5 exposure and health impacts for the entire continental US from current and future western US wildfire activity projected for a range of future climate scenarios through the 21st century.”

Achakulwisut, P., S.C. Anenberg, J.E. Neumann, S.L. Penn, N. Weiss, A. Crimmins, N. Fann, J. Martinich, H. Roman, and L.J. Mickley (2019). Effects of increasing aridity on ambient dust and public health in the U.S. Southwest under climate change. GeoHealth, doi:10.1029/2019GH000187. Available online at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GH000187

“The U.S. Southwest is projected to experience increasing aridity due to climate change. This study quantifies the resulting impacts on ambient dust levels and public.”

Fann, N., C.G. Nolte, P. Dolwick, T.L. Spero, A. Curry Brown, S. Phillips, and S. Anenberg (2015). The geographic distribution and economic value of climate change-related ozone health impacts in the United States in 2030. Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association, 65, 570–580. Available online at https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10962247.2014.996270

This study conducts “multiyear simulations to account for interannual variability and characterize the near-term influence of a changing climate on tropospheric ozone-related health impacts.”

Aeroallergens

Neumann, J.E., S.C. Anenberg, K.R. Weinberger, M. Amend, S. Gulati, A. Crimmins, H. Roman, N. Fann, and P.L. Kinney (2019). Estimates of present and future asthma emergency department visits associated with exposure to oak, birch, and grass pollen in the United States. GeoHealth, 3, 11–27, doi:10.1029/2018GH000153. Available online at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GH000153

This study reports “new estimates of the current and projected future health burden of oak, birch, and grass pollen across the contiguous United States.”

Anenberg, S.C., K.R. Weinberger, H. Roman, J.E. Neumann, A. Crimmins, N. Fann, J. Martinich, and P.L. Kinney (2017). Impacts of oak pollen on allergic asthma in the United States and potential influence of future climate change. GeoHealth, 1, doi:10.1002/2017GH000055. Available online at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017GH000055

This study develops “a proof‐of‐concept approach for estimating asthma emergency department visits in the U.S. associated with present‐day and climate‐induced changes in oak pollen.”

Extreme Temperature Health Effects

Cromar, K.R., S.C. Anenberg, J.R. Balmes, A.A. Fawcett, M. Ghazipura, J.M. Gohlke, M. Hashizume, P. Howard, E. Lavigne, K. Levy, J. Madriagano, J.A. Martinich, E.A. Mordecai, M.B. Rice, S. Saha, N.C. Scovronick, F. Sekercioglu, E.R. Svendsen, B.F. Zaitchik, G. Ewart (2022). Global Health Impacts for Economic Models of Climate Change: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. Annals of the American Thoracic Society, Volume 19, Issue 7, doi: 10.1513/AnnalsATS.202110-1193OC. Available online at https://www.atsjournals.org/doi/full/10.1513/AnnalsATS.202110-1193OC

This study generates "regionally resolved effect estimates of unit increases in temperature on net all-cause mortality risk...through random-effects pooling of studies identified through a systematic review."

Lay, C.R., D. Mills, A. Belova, M.C. Sarofim, P.L. Kinney, A. Vaidyanathan, R. Jones, R. Hall, and S. Saha (2018). Emergency department visits and ambient temperature: Evaluating the connection and projecting future outcomes. GeoHealth, 2, 182–194, doi:10.1002/2018GH000129. Available online at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2018GH000129

This study investigates “the potential effects of changes in ambient daily maximum temperature on hyperthermia and cardiovascular emergency department (ED) visits.”

Mills, D., J. Schwartz, M. Lee, M. Sarofim, R. Jones, M. Lawson, and L. Deck (2014). Climate change impacts on extreme temperature mortality in select metropolitan areas in the United States. Climatic Change, doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1154-8. Available online at https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-014-1154-8

“This paper applies city-specific mortality relationships for extremely hot and cold temperatures for 33 Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the United States to develop mortality projections for historical and potential future climates.”

Food and Waterborne Illness

Sheahan, M., C.A. Gould, J.E. Neumann, P.L. Kinney, S. Hoffmann, C. Fant, X. Wang, and M. Kolian (2022). Examining the relationship between climate change and vibriosis in the United States: Projected health and economic impacts for the 21st century. Environmental Health Perspectives, 130(8), doi:10.1289/EHP9999a. Available online at https://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/doi/10.1289/EHP9999a

This study projects "climate-induced changes in vibriosis and associated economic impacts in the United States related to changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs)."

Labor

Neidell, M., J. Graff Zivin, M. Sheahan, J. Willwerth, C. Fant, M. Sarofim, and J. Martinich (2021). Temperature and work: Time allocated to work under varying climate and labor market contexts. PLOSONE, 16(8), 1–14. Available online at https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0254224

This study models "the relationship between daily temperature and time allocation, focusing on hours worked by high-risk laborers."

Graff Zivin, J., and M. Neidell (2014). Temperature and the allocation of time: Implications for climate change. Journal of Labor Economics, doi:10.1086/671766. Available online at https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/671766

This paper estimates “the impacts of temperature on time allocation by exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in temperature over time within counties.”

Mental Health Effects

Belova, A., C.A. Gould, K. Munson, M. Howell, C. Trevisan, N. Obradovich, and J. Martinich (2022). Projecting the suicide burden of climate change in the United States. GeoHealth, 6, doi: 10.1029/2021GH000580. Available online at https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35582318/

This study projects "the effects of climate change on mental health in the U.S. through the end of the century by looking at potential changes to suicide rates."

Vector-Borne Diseases

Belova, A., D. Mills, R. Hal, A.S. Juliana, A. Crimmins, C. Barker, and R. Jones (2017). Impacts of increasing temperature on the future incidence of West Nile neuroinvasive disease in the United States. American Journal of Climate Change, 6, 166–216. Available online at https://doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2017.61010

This paper develops “a Health Impact Function (HIF) to generate county-level estimates of the expected annual number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease (WNND) cases based on the county’s historical WNND incidence, annual average temperature, and population size.”

Yang. H., C.A. Gould, R. Jones, A. St Juliana, M. Sarofim, M. Rissing, M. B. Hahn (2024). By-degree Health and Economic Impacts of Lyme Disease, Eastern and Midwestern United States. Ecohealth. 21(1), 56-70, doi:10.1007/s10393-024-01676-9. Available online at https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38478199/  

This paper projects "how climate change may influence [Lyme disease] incidence in the eastern and upper Midwestern U.S. and the associated economic burden." 

Harmful Algal Blooms

Chapra, S.C., B. Boehlert, C. Fant, J. Henderson, D. Mills, D.M.L. Mas, L. Rennels, L. Jantarasami, J. Martinich, K.M. Strzepek, V.J. Bierman Jr., and H.W. Paerl (2017). Climate change impacts on harmful algal blooms in U.S. freshwaters: A screening-level assessment. Environmental Science and Technology, 51, 8933–8943. Available online at https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.7b01498.

This paper develops “a modeling framework that predicts the effect of climate change on cyanobacteria concentrations in large reservoirs in the contiguous U.S.”

Valley Fever

Gorris, M.E., J.E. Neumann, P.L. Kinney, M. Sheahan, and M.C. Sarofim (2020). Economic valuation of Coccidioidomycosis (Valley Fever) projections in the United States in response to climate change. Weather, Climate, and Society, 13, 107–123, doi:10.1175/WCAS-D-20-0026.1. Available online at https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wcas/13/1/wcas-d-20-0036.1.xml

This paper develops “an approach to describe the relationship between climate conditions and valley fever… in response to both climate change and population trends.”

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Infrastructure Sector Models

Neumann, J.E., P. Chinowsky, J. Helman, M. Black, C. Fant, K. Strzepek, and J. Martinich (2021). Climate effects on US infrastructure: The economics of adaptation for rail, roads, and coastal development. Climatic Change, 167(44), doi:10.1007/s10584-021-03179-w. Available online at https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-021-03179-w

This paper "estimates impacts to railroad, roads, and coastal properties under three infrastructure management response scenarios: No Adaptation, Reactive Adaptation, and Proactive Adaptation."

Neumann, J.E., J. Price, P. Chinowsky, L. Wright, L. Ludwig, R. Streeter, R. Jones, J.B. Smith, W. Perkins, L. Jantarasami, and J. Martinich (2014). Climate change risks to US infrastructure: Impacts on roads, bridges, coastal development, and urban drainage. Climatic Change, 131, 97–109, doi:10.1007/s10584-013-1037-4. Available online at https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-013-1037-4

This paper estimates how “temperature, precipitation, sea level, and coastal storms will likely increase the vulnerability of infrastructure across the United States [using] four models that analyze vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation.”

Roads

Fant, C., J. Jacobs, P. Chinowsky, W. Sweet, N. Weiss, J. E. Sias, J. Martinich, and J. Neumann (2021). Mere Nuisance or Growing Threat? The Physical and Economic Impact of High Tide Flooding on US Road Networks. Journal of Infrastructure Systems Volume 27 Issue 4 - December 2021. Available online at https://ascelibrary.org/doi/full/10.1061/%28ASCE%29IS.1943-555X.0000652

This study explores "the risks and impacts of High tide flooding (HTF) on vulnerable traffic corridors using hourly tide gauge water levels, sea-level rise projections, and link-level spatial analysis."

Chinowsky, P., J. Price, and J. Neumann (2013). Assessment of climate change adaptation costs for the U.S. road network. Global Environment Change, doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.03.004. Available online at https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378013000514

“This paper develops an approach for estimating climate-related changes in road maintenance and construction costs such that the current level of service provided by roads is maintained over time.”

Bridges

Wright, L., P. Chinowsky, K. Strzepek, R. Jones, R. Streeter, J.B. Smith, J. Mayotte, A. Powell, L. Jantarasami, and W. Perkins (2012). Estimated effects of climate change on flood vulnerability of U.S. bridges. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, doi:10.1007/s11027-011-9354-2. Available online at https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-011-9354-2

This study assesses “the potential impacts of increased river flooding from climate change on bridges in the continental United States.”

Rail

Chinowsky, P., J. Helman, S. Gulati, J. Neumann, and J. Martinich (2019). Impacts of climate change on operation of the US rail network. Transport Policy, 75, 183–191. Available online at https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X16308198

“In this study, the issue of potential impacts to the rail network are analyzed in terms of the cost of potential increases in delays that will occur due to responses of train network operators to temperature increases.”

Alaska Infrastructure

Melvin, A.M., P. Larsen, B. Boehlert, J.E. Neumann, P. Chinowsky, X. Espinet, J. Martinich, M.S. Baumann, L. Rennels, A. Bothner, D.J. Nicolsky, and S.S. Marchenko (2016). Climate change damages to Alaska public infrastructure and the economics of proactive adaptation. Proceedings of the National Academies of Sciences, doi:10.1073/pnas.1611056113. Available online at https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.1611056113

This study quantifies “the potential economic damages to Alaska public infrastructure resulting from climate-driven changes in flooding, precipitation, near-surface permafrost thaw, and freeze–thaw cycles using high and low future climate scenarios.”

Urban Drainage

Price, J., L. Wright, C. Fant, and K. Strzepek (2014). Calibrated methodology for assessing climate change adaptation costs for urban drainage systems. Urban Water Journal, doi:10.1080/1573062X.2014.991740. Available online at https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1573062X.2014.991740

“[T]his paper presents a reduced-form approach for estimating changes in normalized flood depth (the volume of node flooding normalized by the area of the catchment) and the associated costs of flood prevention.”

Coastal Effects

Fant, C., L.E. Gentile, N. Herold, H. Kunkle, Z. Kerrich, J. Neumann, and J. Martinich (2022). Valuation of long-term coastal wetland changes in the U.S. Ocean & Coastal Management, 226, doi: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2022.106248. Available online at https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0964569122002241

This study estimates “an ensemble of future changes in coastal wetland areas considering both sea level rise, future greenhouse gas emissions, and accretion rate uncertainty, using outputs from the National Ocean and Atmospheric (NOAA) marsh migration model.”

Lorie, M., J.E. Neumann, M.C. Sarofim, R. Jones, R.M. Horton, R.E. Kopp, C. Fant, C. Wobus, J. Martinich, and M. O’Grady (2020). Modeling coastal flood risk and adaptation response under future climate conditions. Climate Risk Management, 29, 100233. Available online at https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096320300231

“This study applies an updated version of the [National Coastal Property Model] to incorporate improved cost-benefit tests and to approximate observed sub-optimal flood risk reduction behavior.”

Neumann, J., K. Emanuel, S. Ravela, L. Ludwig, P. Kirshen, K. Bosma, and J. Martinich (2014). Joint effects of storm surge and sea-level rise on US coasts. Climatic Change, doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1304-z. Available online at https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-014-1304-z

“This study combines three models—a tropical cyclone simulation model; a storm surge model; and a model for economic impact and adaptation—to estimate the joint effects of storm surge and [sea-level rise] for the US coast through 2100.”

Martinich, J., J.E. Neumann, L. Ludwig, and L. Jantarasami (2012). Risks of sea level rise to disadvantaged communities in the United States. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, doi:10.1007/s11027-011-9356-0. Available online at https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11027-011-9356-0

This study identifies “geographic areas in the contiguous United States that may be more likely to experience disproportionate impacts of [seal level rise]… and where socially vulnerable populations would bear disproportionate costs of adaptation.”

Neumann, J.E., D.E. Hudgens, J. Herter, and J. Martinich (2010). Assessing sea-level rise impacts: A GIS-based framework and application to coastal New Jersey. Coastal Management, doi:10.1080/08920753.2010.496105. Available online at https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/08920753.2010.496105

“This article reports on a new effort to model the response to and economic impacts of sea-level rise on coastal properties using a spatially comprehensive Geographic Information System (GIS)-based modeling approach….”

Neumann, J.E., D.E. Hudgens, J. Herter, and J. Martinich (2010). The economics of adaptation along developed coastlines. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews (WIREs) Climate Change, doi:10.1002/wcc.90. Available online at https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.90

This study presents “a framework for evaluating the economics of adaptation to permanent inundation from [sea-level rise]… and [applies] the framework to estimate costs of adaptation for the full coastline of the continental US.”

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Electricity Sector Models

Fant, C., B. Boehlert, K. Strzepek, P. Larsen, A. White, S. Gulati, Y. Li, and J. Martinich (2020). Climate change impacts and costs to U.S. electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure. Energy, 195, 116899, doi:10.1016/j.energy.2020.116899. Available online at https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544220300062

“This study presents a screening-level analysis of the impacts of climate change on electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure of the U.S.”

Larsen, P.H., B. Boehlert, J.H. Eto, K. Hamachi LaCommare, J. Martinich, and L. Rennels (2018). Projecting future costs to U.S. electric utility customers from power interruptions. Energy, 147, 1256–1277, doi:10.1016/j.energy.2017.12.081. Available online at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.12.081

This analysis projects “long-run costs to electric utility customers from power interruptions under different future severe weather and electricity system scenarios.”

McFarland, J., Y. Zhou, L. Clarke, P. Schultz, P. Sullivan, J. Colman, P. Patel, J. Eom, S. Kim, G.P. Kyle, W. Jaglom, B. Venkatesh, J. Haydel, R. Miller, J. Creason, B. Perkins, and J. Creason (2015). Impacts of rising air temperatures and emissions mitigation on electricity demand and supply in the United States: A multi-model comparison. Climatic Change, 131, 111–125, doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1380-8. Available online at https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-015-1380-8

This study “examines how projected rising temperatures affect the demand for and supply of electricity.”

Jaglom, W.S., J. McFarland, M. Colley, C. Mack, B. Venkatesh, R. Miller, J. Haydel, P. Schultz, B. Perkins, J. Casola, J. Martinich, P. Cross, M. Kolian, and S. Kayin (2013). Assessment of projected temperature impacts from climate change on the U.S. electric power industry using the Integrated Planning Model. Energy Policy, doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2014.04.032. Available online at https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421514002675

This study measures “the energy, environmental, and economic impacts of power system changes due to temperature changes under two emissions trajectories—with and without emissions mitigation.”

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Water Resources Sector Models

Strzepek, K., J. Neumann, J. Smith, J. Martinich, B. Boehlert, M. Hejazi, J. Henderson, C. Wobus, R. Jones, K. Calvin, D. Johnson, E. Monier, J. Strzepek, and J. Yoon (2014). Benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation on the supply, management, and use of water resources in the United States. Climatic Change, 131, 127–141, doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1279-9. Available online at https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-014-1279-9

“This paper estimates impacts and damages from five water resource-related models addressing runoff, drought risk, economics of water supply/demand, water stress, and flooding damages.”

Inland Flooding

Wobus, C., J. Porter, M. Lorie, J. Martinich, and R. Bash (2021). Climate change, riverine flood risk and adaptation for the conterminous United States. Environmental Research Letters, 16, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac1bd7. Available online at https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10/1088/1748-9326/ac1bd7

This study calculates "expected annual damages to residential structures from inland/riverine flooding at a property-level; the cost of property-level adaptations to protect against future flood risk; and the benefits of those adaptation investments."

Wobus, C., P. Zheng, J. Stein, C. Lay, H. Mahoney, M. Lorie, D. Mills, R. Spies, B. Szafranski, and J. Martinich (2019). Projecting changes in expected annual damages from riverine flooding in the United States. Earth’s Future, doi:10.1029/2018EF001119. Available online at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018EF001119

This study explores “the implications of a changing frequency and magnitude of flooding across a wide spectrum of flood events, using a sample of 376 watersheds in the United States where floodplains from multiple recurrence intervals have been mapped.”

Wobus, C., E. Gutmann, R. Jones, M. Rissing, N. Mizukami, M. Lorie, H. Mahoney, and J. Martinich (2017). Modeled changes in 100-year flood risk and asset damages within mapped floodplains of the contiguous United States. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, doi:10.5194/nhess-2017-152. Available online at https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/17/2199/2017/nhess-17-2199-2017-discussion.html

This study uses “hydrologic projections based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to estimate changes in the frequency of modeled 1% annual exceedance probability… flood events at 57,116 stream reaches across the contiguous United States.”

Water Quality

Fant, C., R. Srinivasan, B. Boehlert, L. Rennels, S.C. Chapra, K.M. Strzepek, J. Corona, A. Allen, and J. Martinich (2017). Climate change impacts on US water quality using two models: HAWQS and US Basins. Water, 9, 118, doi:10.3390/w9020118. Available online at https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/9/2/118

This study assesses “future water quality in the continental U.S. to 2100 considering four water quality parameters: water temperature, dissolved oxygen, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus.”

Boehlert, B., K.M. Strzepek, S.C. Chapra, Y. Gebretsadik, M. Lickley, C. Fant, R. Swanson, A. McCluskey, J.E. Neumann, and J. Martinich (2016). Climate change impacts and greenhouse gas mitigation effects on U.S. water quality. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:10.1002/2014MS000400. Available online at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014MS000400

This paper analyzes “the physical and economic effects of changes in freshwater quality across the contiguous U.S. in futures with and without global‐scale greenhouse gas mitigation.”

Municipal and Industrial Water Supply

Henderson, J., C. Rodgers, R. Jones, J. Smith, K. Strzepek, and J. Martinich (2013). Economic impacts of climate change on water resources in the coterminous United States. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, doi:10.1007/s11027-013-9483-x. Available online at https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11027-013-9483-x

This study creates a “national-scale simulation-optimization model… to generate estimates of economic impacts associated with changes in water supply and demand as influenced by climate change.”

Winter Recreation

Wobus, C., E.E. Small, H. Hosterman, D. Mills, J. Stein, M. Rissing, R. Jones, M. Duckworth, R. Hall, M. Kolian, J. Creason, and J. Martinich (2017). Projected climate change impacts on winter recreation in the United States. Global Environmental Change, doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.04.006. Available online at https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016305556

This study simulates “natural snow accumulation at 247 winter recreation locations across the continental United States… to determine downhill skiing, cross-country skiing, and snowmobiling season lengths under baseline and future climates.”

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Agriculture Sector Models

Fei, C., J. Jagermeyr, B. McCarl, E. Mencos Contreras, C. Mutter, M. Phillips, A.C. Ruane, M.C. Sarofim, P. Schultz, and A. Vargo (2023). Future climate change impacts on U.S. agricultural yields, production, and market. Anthropocene. doi: 10.1016/j.ancene.2023.100386. Available online at https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221330542300019X?via%3Dihub

"This study provides estimates of climate change impacts on U.S. agricultural yields and the agricultural economy through the end of the 21st century, utilizing multiple climate scenarios."

Beach, R., Y. Cai, A. Thomson, X. Zhang, R. Jones, B. McCarl, A. Crimmins, J. Martinich, J. Cole, and S. Ohrel (2015). Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: Benefits of global climate stabilization. Environmental Research Letters, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/095004. Available online at https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/095004/pdf

This study provides “an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices.”

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Ecosystem Sector Models

Coral Reefs

Lane, D., R. Jones, D. Mills, C. Wobus, R.C. Ready, R.W. Buddemeier, E. English, J. Martinich, K. Shouse, and H. Hosterman (2014). Climate change impacts on freshwater fish, coral reefs, and related ecosystem services in the United States. Climatic Change, 131, 143–157, doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1107-2. Available online at https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-014-1107-2

This study analyzes “the potential physical and economic impacts of climate change on freshwater fisheries and coral reefs in the United States, examining a reference case and two policy scenarios that limit global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.”

Lane, D.R., R.C. Ready, R.W. Buddemeier, J.A. Martinich, K.C. Shouse, and C.W. Wobus (2013). Quantifying and valuing potential climate change impacts on coral reefs in the United States: Comparison of two scenarios. PLOS ONE, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0082579. Available online at https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0082579

This study applies “the COMBO simulation model (Coral Mortality and Bleaching Output) to three major U.S. locations for shallow water reefs: South Florida, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii [and compares] estimates of future coral cover from 2000 to 2100.”

Marine Fisheries

Moore, C., J.W. Morley, B. Morrison, M. Kolian, E. Horsch, T. Frolicher, M. Pinsky, and R. Griffis (2021). Estimating the economic impacts of climate change on 16 major U.S. fisheries. Climate Change Economics, doi:10.1142/S2010007821500020. Available online at https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/epdf/10.1142/S2010007821500020

This analysis estimates “the consumer welfare impacts of projected increases or decreases in commercial landings for 16 US fisheries from 2021 to 2100, based on the predicted changes in thermally available habitat.”

Shellfish

Moore, C., and C. Griffiths (2017). Welfare analysis in a two-stage inverse demand model: An application to harvest changes in the Chesapeake Bay. Empirical Economics, 55, 1181–1206. Available online at https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00181-017-1309-3

This study estimates “consumer welfare impacts of an increase in finfish and shellfish harvest from the Chesapeake Bay while recognizing that harvests from other regions are potential substitutes.”

Freshwater Fish

Jones, R., C. Travers, C. Rodgers, B. Lazar, E. English, J. Lipton, J. Vogel, K. Strzepek, and J. Martinich (2012). Climate change impacts on freshwater recreational fishing in the United States. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, doi:10.1007/s11027-012-9385-3. Available online at https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11027-012-9385-3

This study estimates “the biological and economic impacts of climate change on freshwater fisheries in the United States [by modeling] changes in stream temperatures, flows, and the spatial extent of suitable thermal habitats.”

Wildfire

Melvin, A.M., J. Murray, B. Boehlert, J.A. Martinich, L. Rennels, and T.S. Rupp (2017). Estimating wildfire response costs in Alaska’s changing climate. Climatic Change Letters, doi:10.1007/s10584-017-1923-2. Available online at https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-017-1923-2

This study projects “area burned and associated response costs to 2100 under relatively high and low climate forcing scenarios… using the Alaskan Frame-based Ecosystem Code (ALFRESCO) model.”

Mills, D., R. Jones, K. Carney, A. St Juliana, R. Ready, A. Crimmins, J. Martinich, K. Shouse, B. DeAngelo, and E. Monier (2014). Quantifying and monetizing potential climate change policy impacts on terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage and wildfires in the United States. Climatic Change, doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1118-z. Available online at https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-014-1118-z

“This paper develops and applies methods to quantify and monetize projected impacts on terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage and areas burned by wildfires in the contiguous United States under scenarios with and without global greenhouse gas mitigation.”

Forestry

Baker, J.S., G. Van Houtven, J. Phelan, G. Latta, C.M. Clark, K.G. Austin, O.E. Sodiya, S.B. Ohrel, J. Buckley, L.E. Gentile, and J. Martinich (2023). Projecting U.S. forest management, market, and carbon sequestration responses to a high-impact climate scenario. Forest Policy and Economics, doi: doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2022.102898. Available online at https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1389934122002118

"This study uses an empirical forest composition model to estimate the impact of climate factors (temperature and precipitation) and other environmental parameters on forest productivity for 94 forest species across the conterminous United States.”

Recreation

Willwerth, J., M. Sheahan, N. Chan, C. Fant, M. Martinich, and M. Kolian (2023). The effects of climate change on outdoor recreation participation in the United States: Projections for the twenty-first century. Weather, Climate, and Society. doi: 10.1175/WCAS-D-22-0060.1. Available online at https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wcas/15/3/WCAS-D-22-0060.1.xml 

"This paper empirically investigates the relationship between weather and outdoor recreation using nationally representative data from the contiguous United States."

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